|1||Decision analysis I - Kendall crab and Lobster case||Read chapter 1 of the text. Prepare the Kendall crab and Lobster case (at the end of chapter 1), and be ready to discuss the following questions in class: what are the choices that Jeff Daniels faces? What are the sources of uncertainty in the case? What are the consequences of the various possible outcomes? What course of action would you recommend for Jeff Daniels?|
|2||Decision analysis II - Graphic corporation case||Read sections 2.1 through 2.3 of chapter 2 of the text. Read and analyze the graphic corporation case (at the end of chapter 2). In addition to developing a strategy for Dana Meseroll, you should also perform a sensitivity analysis on the piece of data that you think is the least reliable in the setting of the problem. Hand in your analysis (including sensitivity analysis) of the case.|
|3||Discrete probability distributions|
The next three classes lay the basic groundwork of probability. We will see how data can be characterized as observed values of random variables and study three important probability distributions: the uniform distribution, the binomial distribution, and the normal distribution.
Read sections 2.4-2.11 and 2.13 of chapter 2.
|4||Continuous probability distributions|
Homework assignment #1 due (PDF)
Read sections 3.1-3.3 of chapter 3.
|5||The normal distribution||Read sections 3.4-3.8 of chapter 3.|
|6||Simulation I – Gentle lentil case|
Homework assignment #2 due (PDF)
Read sections 4.1 and 4.2 of chapter 4, and all of chapter 5. Read the Gentle Lentil restaurant case (at the end of chapter 5) and prepare answers to the questions at the end of the case. (Note: you are not required to build a simulation model.) Decide how you would go about analyzing the salary implications of the two career decisions that Sanjay Thomas faces.
|7||Simulation II – Ontario gateway case||Read the Ontario gateway case (at the end of chapter 5). Perform the case analysis modeling assignment for the Ontario gateway case described at the end of the case. Hand in a management memorandum presenting your conclusions with appropriate but concise back-up enclosures to support your recommendations.|
|8||Statistical sampling I||Re-read sections 4.1-4.2 of chapter 4, and read sections 4.3 and 4.7 of chapter 4.|
|9||Statistical sampling II|
Homework assignment #3 due (PDF)
Re-read sections 4.3 and 4.7 of chapter 4, and read sections 4.4-4.6 of chapter 4.
|Quiz||The 1.5-hour quiz will take place during regular class time. The quiz will cover all of the material we have covered so far in the course. The quiz will be closed-book with no notes allowed. You may bring a calculator with you. We will provide a sheet of formulas that will be posted on the course web site before the quiz.|
|10||Regression models I||Read sections 6.1 through 6.7 of chapter 6.|
|11||Regression models II||Read sections 4.4-4.5 of chapter 4 and sections 6.8 through 6.10 of chapter 6.|
Homework assignment #4 due (PDF)
Read the two regression cases entitled "Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUS" and "Executive Compensation" (at the end of chapter 6). Perform the analyses outlined at the end of each case and come to class prepared to discuss your findings.
Case write-up due after six days
Read the case "Eurotel 3G License Valuation" (provided on the course web site). Do the assignment discussed at the end of the case, and write and hand in a memorandum as discussed in the case. Your memorandum should include appropriate but concise exhibits to support your recommendations.
|13||Introduction to linear optimization||Read sections 7.1-7.3 of chapter 7. We will cover the basics of linear optimization, including formulations, key concepts, and graphical solution methods.|
|14||Optimization model solutions and analysis|
Homework assignment #5 due (PDF)
Read sections 7.4-7.6 of chapter 7. We will cover computer solution methods for linear optimization, basic sensitivity and economic analysis of a linear optimization model, as well as extensions of linear optimization and applied optimization modeling in general.
|15||Filatoi Riuniti case|
Homework assignment #6 due (PDF)
Read and analyze the Filatoi Riuniti case at the end of chapter 7. Be prepared to discuss this case in class.
|16||Nonlinear optimization models||Read sections 8.1-8.4 of chapter 8. We will discuss the concepts of nonlinear optimization in class.|
|17||Endurance investors case|
Read section 8.5 of chapter 8. Read the endurance investors case at the end of chapter 8. Analyze and hand in your answers to the questions following the case. We will discuss the endurance investors case in class.
|18||Discrete optimization models||Read sections 9.1-9.4 of chapter 9. We will discuss the concepts of discrete optimization in class.|
|19||International industries case|
Homework assignment #7 due
Read the case "International Industries, Inc." at the end of chapter 9. Analyze and hand in your answers to the questions following the case. We will discuss the international industries case in class.
|20||Summary and look-ahead||In this last class session, we will present some extensions of the concepts and modeling tools developed in the course. We will also discuss possible follow-on classes at Sloan and elsewhere on campus. Last but not least, we will reserve part of this session to provide guidance as you prepare for the final examination.|
|Final exam review|